236/237 calibrated
Each entity’s cohort level is anchored to UN World Population Prospects 2024 population by single year of age, interpolated year by year. Kosovo is the one declared fallback.
Release standard
Calibrated to the UN, checked against national statistics, and downloadable.
Nobody publishes “people aged 13–19” as a number: the UN gives single ages and five-year bands, and only as a 1 July snapshot. This release assembles that number for 237 countries and territories, moves it continuously through the year using sourced birth seasonality and population-weighted time zones, pins every input by hash, and reports how far it lands from national statistics it was never calibrated on. It is a demographic estimate, not a registry.
Median 2.35% from national counts
Across 51 countries with independent single-age statistics, half the estimates land within 2.35% of the national figure; 39 of 51 within 5%.
44% of births on sourced seasonality
145 countries use published monthly births. The rest, led by India and China, use a documented regional profile — never a US curve.
How accurate is it
Measured against statistics the model never saw.
The model is evaluated at each national agency’s own reference date and compared with that agency’s published population aged 13–19. Eurostat, the US Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, the ONS, Japan’s Statistics Bureau and the ABS are not calibration inputs — they are the test.
| Country | National source | National 13–19 | This model | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US Census Bureau Vintage 2024 | 30,835,278 | 31,529,448 | +2.2% |
| Japan | Statistics Bureau of Japan | 7,580,000 | 7,879,036 | +4.0% |
| United Kingdom | ONS mid-year estimates | 5,825,084 | 5,770,666 | -0.9% |
| Germany | Eurostat demo_pjan (1 January) | 5,505,138 | 5,406,812 | -1.8% |
| France | Eurostat demo_pjan (1 January) | 5,990,735 | 5,790,526 | -3.3% |
| Canada | Statistics Canada 17-10-0005-01 | 3,209,005 | 3,040,459 | -5.2% |
| Australia | ABS 3101.0 Table 59 | 2,379,337 | 2,317,728 | -2.6% |
Reading the gap honestly
The UN series this model is built on already differs from national counts: for ages 13–19 in 2024, WPP 2024 sits 3.3% above Japan’s official figure and 1.9% above the US Census. The model reproduces WPP’s own Japan number within 0.65% (a committed test), so most of what remains is inherited from the UN source, not introduced here. The largest outliers in the full table are definitional — Cyprus (WPP counts the whole island, Eurostat only the government-controlled area, +40%) and Moldova (Transnistria, +29%) — and are listed, not hidden.
All 51 countries, latest available year — 15 within 1%, 21 within 2%, 39 within 5%
| Country | Reference date | National 13–19 | This model | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 2025-01-01 | 190,198 | 229,999 | +20.9% |
| Andorra | 2019-01-01 | 5,663 | 5,658 | -0.1% |
| Armenia | 2024-01-01 | 254,145 | 263,636 | +3.7% |
| Australia | 2025-06-30 | 2,379,337 | 2,317,728 | -2.6% |
| Austria | 2025-01-01 | 627,494 | 613,879 | -2.2% |
| Azerbaijan | 2025-01-01 | 1,131,937 | 1,106,530 | -2.2% |
| Belarus | 2019-01-01 | 627,857 | 622,776 | -0.8% |
| Belgium | 2025-01-01 | 986,281 | 965,179 | -2.1% |
| Bulgaria | 2025-01-01 | 453,272 | 480,614 | +6.0% |
| Canada | 2024-07-01 | 3,209,005 | 3,040,459 | -5.2% |
| Croatia | 2025-01-01 | 273,801 | 288,689 | +5.4% |
| Cyprus | 2025-01-01 | 68,175 | 95,556 | +40.2% |
| Czechia | 2025-01-01 | 858,726 | 810,795 | -5.6% |
| Denmark | 2025-01-01 | 483,402 | 487,261 | +0.8% |
| Estonia | 2025-01-01 | 111,104 | 107,829 | -3.0% |
| Finland | 2025-01-01 | 450,481 | 448,770 | -0.4% |
| France | 2025-01-01 | 5,990,735 | 5,790,526 | -3.3% |
| Georgia | 2025-01-01 | 303,678 | 340,957 | +12.3% |
| Germany | 2025-01-01 | 5,505,138 | 5,406,812 | -1.8% |
| Greece | 2025-01-01 | 772,030 | 742,778 | -3.8% |
| Hungary | 2025-01-01 | 672,380 | 693,402 | +3.1% |
| Iceland | 2025-01-01 | 35,236 | 35,352 | +0.3% |
| Ireland | 2025-01-01 | 524,064 | 510,120 | -2.7% |
| Italy | 2025-01-01 | 4,045,973 | 4,040,870 | -0.1% |
| Japan | 2024-10-01 | 7,580,000 | 7,879,036 | +4.0% |
| Kosovo | 2022-01-01 | 196,553 | 242,738 | +23.5% |
| Latvia | 2025-01-01 | 138,592 | 140,903 | +1.7% |
| Liechtenstein | 2025-01-01 | 2,856 | 2,787 | -2.4% |
| Lithuania | 2025-01-01 | 204,632 | 199,580 | -2.5% |
| Luxembourg | 2025-01-01 | 50,231 | 49,803 | -0.8% |
| Malta | 2025-01-01 | 32,280 | 32,740 | +1.4% |
| Moldova | 2025-01-01 | 205,268 | 265,212 | +29.2% |
| Monaco | 2025-01-01 | 2,408 | 2,209 | -8.3% |
| Montenegro | 2025-01-01 | 52,259 | 55,675 | +6.5% |
| Netherlands | 2025-01-01 | 1,409,777 | 1,413,597 | +0.3% |
| North Macedonia | 2025-01-01 | 145,927 | 146,144 | +0.1% |
| Norway | 2025-01-01 | 474,536 | 475,431 | +0.2% |
| Poland | 2025-01-01 | 2,696,607 | 2,841,855 | +5.4% |
| Portugal | 2025-01-01 | 734,075 | 723,057 | -1.5% |
| Romania | 2025-01-01 | 1,528,712 | 1,519,083 | -0.6% |
| San Marino | 2018-01-01 | 2,428 | 2,318 | -4.5% |
| Serbia | 2025-01-01 | 457,543 | 468,312 | +2.4% |
| Slovakia | 2025-01-01 | 391,968 | 399,206 | +1.9% |
| Slovenia | 2025-01-01 | 155,078 | 152,926 | -1.4% |
| Spain | 2025-01-01 | 3,730,690 | 3,570,200 | -4.3% |
| Sweden | 2025-01-01 | 878,234 | 882,740 | +0.5% |
| Switzerland | 2025-01-01 | 639,299 | 620,253 | -3.0% |
| Turkey | 2025-01-01 | 8,945,745 | 8,887,707 | -0.7% |
| Ukraine | 2022-01-01 | 2,897,854 | 2,903,835 | +0.2% |
| United Kingdom | 2024-06-30 | 5,825,084 | 5,770,666 | -0.9% |
| United States | 2024-07-01 | 30,835,278 | 31,529,448 | +2.2% |
Sources and retrieval hashes are in the release record; the full comparison is model_vs_national.csv. Japan’s national table is published in thousands.
Birth seasonality
Where each country’s within-year timing comes from.
Whether someone born in a given year has already had their 13th or 20th birthday today depends on when in the year people are born, and that differs by country and hemisphere. Each entity takes the first tier below with complete monthly data (up to five most recent complete years, averaged); the rest use a birth-weighted mean of direct-data countries in the smallest UN M49 group available.
| Tier | Countries | Share of 2005–2013 births |
|---|---|---|
| Human Fertility Database (STFF) | 43 | 10.3% |
| Eurostat demo_fmonth | 17 | 1.3% |
| UN Demographic Yearbook, births by month | 79 | 19.5% |
| Published national tables / peer-reviewed shares | 6 | 12.4% |
| Regional fallback (M49 group mean) | 92 | 56.5% |
India and China publish no openly available monthly births table — civil-registration reports, SRS, NFHS-5 and NBS census volumes were checked — so they carry the Southern Asia and Eastern Asia regional profiles, flagged as such in seasonality_profiles.csv. Hour of day uses one common curve from US CDC/NCHS Data Brief 200, the only open numeric hour-of-birth table; it is a small effect on any daily total.
Source ledger
Named sources. Pinned files. Checkable outputs.
The machine-readable release record preserves the exact editions, SHA-256 hashes, coverage and transformations used by this release, plus the code revision that produced it.
| Input | Authority | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Population by single year of age | UN World Population Prospects 2024 | Cohort level, per country and calendar year, interpolated between 1 July points. Pinned workbook hash. 2024 onward are WPP medium-variant projections. |
| Births by year | Our World in Data export of UN WPP births | Annual birth cohort per entity; file hash in the release record. |
| Births by month — 43 countries | Human Fertility Database, Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations | Highest-quality monthly series, 2000–2025, openly downloadable. |
| Births by month — 17 more | Eurostat demo_fmonth | European countries not in HFD. |
| Births by month — 79 more | UN Demographic Yearbook, table 55 | Civil-registration births by month of occurrence; reliability flags retained. |
| Births by month — 6 more | Dorélien (2016), Demographic Research 34(27); UNSD | Nigeria, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda from DHS-based seasonality indices, normalised to shares. |
| Hour of birth | CDC/NCHS Data Brief 200 | One global hour-of-day curve; US 2013 birth certificates. |
| Population-weighted geography | European Commission GHSL | GHS-POP 2025 1 km grid allocates each entity across its time zones; sums to exactly 100% per entity. |
| Time-zone boundaries and rules | Timezone Boundary Builder; IANA tz database | Boundary geometry and civil-time rules, pinned by release. |
| Independent validation | Eurostat demo_pjan; US Census Bureau; Statistics Canada; ONS; Statistics Bureau of Japan; ABS | Not used in calibration. Single-year-of-age population at each agency’s reference date. |
Download the data
Take the numbers, not a screenshot.
Everything below is regenerated on each daily bake from the same code that drives the counter. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
| latest.csv / latest.json | Estimated population aged 13–19 for every entity at the bake instant, with the global total. | |
| model_vs_national.csv | Model versus independent national statistics, per country-year. | |
| seasonality_profiles.csv | Monthly birth shares per entity with source tier and years used. | |
| births_by_month_sources.csv | Every sourced monthly birth count used (HFD, Eurostat, UN DYB, published), 2.7 MB. | |
| model-release.json | The release record: sources, hashes, coverage, validation, code revision. | |
| LICENSE.txt | CC BY 4.0 and suggested attribution. | |
Suggested citation: Escaping Work (2026). Teenagers Population: global population aged 13–19, research release 2026-09-13, calibrated to UN World Population Prospects 2024. Include the release date and link the release record.
What this is not
- Not a registry. It allocates annual demographic totals through dates, hours and time zones; it does not observe individual births, deaths or migration.
- No published uncertainty interval yet. The validation table above is the accuracy evidence for this release; a sensitivity interval follows once it passes its own checks.
- 56% of the relevant births use a regional seasonality profile rather than their own country’s monthly data — chiefly India and China, where none is openly published.
- WPP values from 2024 onward are medium-variant projections, and WPP itself differs from national counts by a few percent in some countries.
- Hour-of-day timing is a single US-derived curve applied everywhere.
- For official programme denominators, legal decisions or individual-level facts, use the responsible national statistical authority.
Release commitment
Make every update easier to verify than the last.
Source versions, calculation rules, validation results and declared fallbacks are published with each release. The next ones add a sensitivity interval and external review; they do not pretend the current release is less useful than it is.
Explore the live estimate